What does the future hold for the manufacturers of business jets? Bombardier thinks the future for the next 20 years will be strong. Their market forecast for 2014-2033 has been released and here are some nuggets from that document, which is available here:
1. Bombardier predicts a demand for just over 22,000 business jets across the three categories of business jets that it's active in - Light, Medium and Large. Those 22,000 jets have an estimated value of $617 billion.
2. The previous delivery peak, which took place in 2008, will be hit again in 2017.
3. By 2033, manufacturers will hit annual deliveries of 1,350 business aircraft.
4. The Large Business Jet category, which includes Bombardier's expanding Global range, is expected to have the highest percent-growth rate of the three categories, with 5,250 deliveries in the next 20 years.
5. The Large Business Jet category pre-owned inventory accounts for just 9.6% of the market, making it the healthiest of the three categories.
6. The Medium Business Jet category, which includes Bombardier's Challenger line, should see 7,650 deliveries in the next 20 years.
7. The Medium Business Jet category pre-owned inventory is now at 12.5% of the fleet, and is now back to pre-recession levels. Because of this, Bombardier sees "promising growth" in this category, which it predicts will have a quick turnaround.
8. The Light Business Jet category, which includes Bombardier's Learjet line, is expected to produce 9,100 deliveries in the next two decades.
9. North America will see the largest number of new business jet deliveries over the next 20 years, estimated at 8,760 units with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2%. Europe, which will still be the 2nd largest market, will demand less than half as much as what North America at 3,575 units, but that will amount to a CAGR of 6% - equal to what's expected for the CIS.
10. By 2033, China will be the 3rd largest market for business jets.
Bombardier's report takes into consideration key indicators such as Gross Domestic Product, pre-owned business aircraft levels, stock market indices as well as the growing number of rich and super rich individuals, referred to as HNWIs or High Net Worth Individuals. The report states"
"The collective net worth of this demographic grew by 19% during this time. The growth in wealth generated by the HNWI community during a period of comparatively weak worldwide growth gives us increased confidence in our positive outlook for the business aviation market."
All in all, it looks like the business jet market looks set to soar.